View
videos of Jeff Palermo,
executive consultant with KEMA, discussing the KEMA study and other
topics relating to the need for the power line.
An Urgent, Undeniable Need for a Solution in Northern Virginia
Northern
Virginia’s transmission system could face severe overloads
starting in 2011. These overloads could require drastic measures
such as rolling blackouts. If left unchecked, it could lead to system
failure and cascading blackouts.
KEMA, a well-respected, international
firm that has served as a transmission consultant for the Virginia SCC, confirms
the critical need for a transmission solution in Northern Virginia. PJM
concurs with this
assessment. Even some opponents of the proposed line acknowledge the
need for urgent solutions to Northern Virginia’s energy problems.
The
U.S. Department of Energy has labeled the region a “critical congestion
area” that faces “unparalleled problems.” This line
is needed by 2011 to comply with new, mandatory federal reliability
standards.
Reliable Service in Northern Virginia Essential to National
Security
Regional reliability issues could threaten
national security. As former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy Edward Badolato
said in Dominion’s
application with the SCC, “Loss of power, and in particular, chronic
shortages [due to] lack of adequate electric transmission capacity to Northern
Virginia can have profound impacts on our national security.”
The region
is home to facilities such as the Pentagon, the CIA, and data centers for the
defense, intelligence, and homeland security sectors. Major expansions include
doubling the size of Ft. Belvoir and construction of a new U.S. Department
of Homeland Security headquarters.
Badolato noted that power problems in
Northern Virginia could have serious effects throughout the entire National
Capital Region (NCR). “Blackouts
and loss of service…can impact emergency services, transportation, healthcare,
building support, food supply and other non-defense components of the federal,
state and local governments.”
Northern Virginia is also a critical component
of the nation’s high-tech
economy and information superhighway. No fewer than 23 new data centers — small
campuses with a total electrical demand equal to a mid-sized city — are
in the planning stages.
Conservation and
new generation, while helpful, are not feasible ways
to solve the problem.
By 2011, Northern Virginians would have to
reduce their peak demand energy use by 40% to avert the need for the line.
KEMA found this scenario “clearly
not reasonable.”
KEMA also found that meeting the need through new generation was
not feasible. This
would require construction of “one of the largest [power stations] in
North America” by 2011 in Northern Virginia. An even larger station would
be needed by 2016, KEMA found.
Given the urgent nature of the
problem and the critical importance of the region, Dominion must pursue
solutions that are certain to work and can be in place on time. The
proposed transmission line is the only solution that meets these standards.
KEMA Report -- “Northern
Virginia Transmission System Review”
Background on KEMA
KEMA is an internationally recognized power
system engineering firm with its American headquarters in Burlington, Massachusetts. With
more than 400 full-time professionals, KEMA has provided technical expertise
and analysis for the entire range of stakeholder groups, from public utility
regulators and commissions, to utilities, to private citizens. For example,
KEMA was retained by the State Corporation Commission in 1998 to evaluate Appalachian
Power Co.’s proposed 765-kilovolt
transmission line from its Wyoming Substation in West Virginia to its Cloverdale
Substation near Roanoke. The line has since been constructed and energized.
KEMA
was engaged to determine independently of Dominion if there is a need for major
new transmission capacity in Northern Virginia and to evaluate potential solutions.
In
maintaining reliability, utilities must examine worst-case scenarios that involve
failure of major generation and transmission facilities. If
there is not enough transmission capacity to address these contingencies,
the entire system can be put in jeopardy, with costly and potentially devastating
consequences such as blackouts.
Testimony and KEMA Report
The testimony and report are part
of Dominion's Application filed April 19, 2007, titled: "Application,
Appendix, DEQ Supplement, Direct Testimony and Exhibits of Virginia Electric
and Power Company Before the State Corporation Commission of Virginia."
Direct
Testimony of P.
Jeffrey Palermo, KEMA, Inc. (Review of need by KEMA, Inc.)
KEMA
Report (complete report, attachment PJP-1 to P. Jeffrey
Palermo Direct Testimony)
There is a need for action by 2011. Without action, the transmission
system in Northern Virginia would violate mandatory federal reliability standards
by that year. Major transmission lines serving Northern Virginia could
become overloaded, resulting in potential system failure in the region.
No alternative
to the new transmission line was found to have a reasonable expectation of
meeting the need by 2011. Further, “…the
results show that either alternative (Dominion’s proposed and alternative
routes) solves these problems in northern Virginia and the surrounding region.” (p.
5)
Major Points in Study Analysis
The study evaluated 10 alternatives to solving the need by 2011, including
demand-side management (DSM), new generation, and eight different transmission
options.
Demand-Side Management Option
The nature of the transmission problem dictates that to reduce the overloading
by 1 MW, Northern Virginia would have to reduce demand by approximately
12.5 MW.
Given this fact, Northern Virginians would have to
reduce their peak energy use by 40% to avert the need for the line
by 2011. “To
assume that such a program could be designed, approved, implemented, and
accepted by DVP customers in less than four years is clearly not reasonable.” (p.
61)
By 2016, Northern Virginians would have to reduce their
peak energy use to almost ZERO to avert the need for the line. KEMA
determined this to be an unreasonable goal.
New Generation
Distributed generation options (solar panels
on roofs, for example) could reduce the need; however, it faces the same
constraints as DSM. By
2011, the region would need 2,850 MW of new generation; by 2016, 6,975 MW,
to meet the need. KEMA compares this to adding 31,000 “neighborhood
power stations” by 2011 and 77,000 by 2016. KEMA sees this as
unacceptable given the time constraints.
A single verylarge
generating unit could meet the need;
however, it would need to produce at least 3,000 MW by 2011. To site,
construct, and operate a power station this size in Northern Virginia by
2011 is unrealistic. “This [solution] would require […]
by far the largest plant in Virginia, and one of the largest in North America. This
plant would need to be even larger to be effective in 2016.” (pp. 62-3)
A few
large plants could also meet the need, but would also require
system improvements on transmission lines. These plants would face
the same challenges, with the added possibility of PJM cost penalties if
these units were required to operate (for reliability) out of economic dispatch
order. “The costs of this out-of-merit order generation could
be enormous.” (p. 63)
Other Transmission Options
KEMA conducted further analysis of eight
transmission options; including overhead routes, an underground alternating
current (AC), and a direct current (DC) option with portions underground.
“The
first two options — the company proposed route and the alternate
route — are very similar electrically and have better technical performance
than the other alternatives. The third option — HDVC (High Voltage
Direct Current, with portions underground) — is acceptable but is not
as good technically as the first two. All of the other options are
unacceptable.” (p. 67)
The KEMA study confirms that serious
reliability problems will result by 2011 if nothing is done in Northern Virginia.These
problems require new transmission facilities by 2011, which the DVP alternatives
meet.
